Bonus Expected Value Calculator
Casino bonuses are a mathematical proposition. This calculator quantifies the expected value of any bonus by modelling wagering requirements, game contribution rates, and return-to-player percentages.
---- ◆ Input Parameters ◆ ----
Bonus Details
100% for slots, typically 10% for blackjack/table games
---- ◆ Analysis Output ◆ ----
Expected Value Breakdown
Formula: Expected Loss = Effective Wagering x (1 - RTP). Expected Value = Bonus Amount - Expected Loss. Positive EV indicates a statistically profitable bonus.
Seeking optimal bonus terms? Review our complete bonus comparison or examine casinos with favourable wagering conditions.
---- ◆ Methodology ◆ ----
Understanding the Mathematics
◆ Wagering Requirements Defined
Wagering requirements represent a turnover obligation — the total amount you must stake before bonus funds become withdrawable. A 40x requirement on a $100 bonus mandates $4,000 in cumulative bets. This is the primary mechanism casinos use to ensure bonuses are not immediately withdrawn as profit. The mathematical implication is straightforward: higher multipliers increase your exposure to the house edge over a larger volume of bets.
◆ Game Contribution Weighting
Game contribution determines how efficiently each wager counts toward clearing the requirement. When slots contribute 100% and blackjack contributes 10%, a $10 blackjack bet only clears $1 of your wagering obligation. This effectively multiplies the wagering requirement by a factor of 1/contribution. Playing a 10%-contribution game on a 40x requirement produces an effective 400x multiplier — a critical variable most players overlook.
◆ Expected Value Theory
Expected Value (EV) quantifies the average outcome of a probabilistic event over infinite repetitions. For bonus clearing: EV = Bonus Amount - (Effective Wagering x House Edge). When EV is positive, the bonus generates profit on average. When negative, you are expected to lose more through wagering than the bonus is worth. This is a long-run average — individual sessions exhibit high variance, particularly on volatile games.
◆ Identifying Positive EV Opportunities
The threshold for positive EV can be expressed as: Wagering Multiplier < 1 / House Edge (when contribution is 100% and wagering applies to bonus only). For a 96% RTP game (4% edge), any wagering under 25x yields positive EV. Casinos like Cloudbet and Stake occasionally offer terms that approach or cross this threshold, particularly for crypto deposits.